Image AddedStatus

Needs additional funding or donations for paper and/or additional climate modeling.

Description

Design experiments and perform climate modeling to validate large-scale CD removal and GHG phase-out to lower warming to 0ºC, over the mean global temperature of 1850-1900 by 2100. Unique to these experiments, is they complete by 2100.

The full experimental paper is on hold until the experiments can be rerun on a full CDRMIP Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model. Once the experiments are run on a full AOGCM the results will more accurately (compared to a Reduced-complexity Model such as MAGICC 6.8) show if the hypothesis of halting anthropogenic emissions from all greenhouse gasses and additionally remove cumulative anthropogenic carbon dioxide, would restore the climate to that existed at 1800 with a CO₂ concentration of about 280 ppm.

Note, a brief commentary on Reduced Complexity Model results may have limited impact as the experiments would need to be repeated on a cluster running the full AOGCM to better project the impact of strong feedbacks, however, its novelty may need to be performed in order to justify the expenditure for the more detailed and compute-intensive study.

Papers

Theory paper

Presented version: Targeting All Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions

PrePrint (non-peer reviewed) Revised version: Alternative Method to Determine a Carbon Dioxide Removal Target (2018), https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10503117.1

Authors: Shannon A. Fiume

A short paper outlining how much carbon we need to solidify for complete climate restoration and the carbon's location. It shows why 300 ppm and less needs to be fully explored for complete climate restoration.

Experimental Validation Paper

Draft paper in collaboration with Foundation for Climate Restoration. Experiments to test how to achieve 300 ppm, then to 280 ppm.

Working draft title 'Modeling large-scale CDR Scenarios': https://github.com/hsbay/cdrmex/blob/main/ONCtests.ipynb.

Experimental validation of Targeting All Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions with MAGICC 6, and pymagicc.

Authors: Shannon A. Fiume

Abstract

The experiments explore the effects of halting anthropogenic emissions from all greenhouse gasses and additionally removing cumulative anthropogenic carbon dioxide in less than 100 years. An idealized greenhouse gas emissions modeling experiment was completed in MAGICC 6.801, a Reduced Complexity Model. The experiment pairs with RCP 2.6 and SSP 1-1.19 to explore the linear removal for both an 80-year time frame. Results were graphed, extending to 2500, showing a converging temperature, greenhouse concentration, and warming. The Reduced Complexity climate model, when all greenhouse gas emissions were halted, and cumulative anthropogenic carbon dioxide was removed, excluding ammonia under .1ºC of warming was realized.

Results Summary

2021 Results

Current results in pymagicc/MAGICC 6.8: https://github.com/hsbay/cdrmex, https://github.com/hsbay/cdrmex/blob/main/ONCtests.ipynb

Workbook models these types of large scale Carbon-based removals:

Image Added

Which results in these types of declines:

Image Added

Tuneables and Experiment Settings

In order to better calibrate MAGICC to a CMIP model, the HadCRUT5 (2020) temperature data analysis was used to line-fit the average of the last 5 years. The global carbon anthropogenic emissions data from the Global Carbon Budget (2020) was used to calibrate 2009 to 2020 (estimated).

N2O data caused a noticeable spike after decreasing emissions; MAGICC does seem to artificially hold this value high for a few years resulting in the artifact about year 2070 for 300x2050 or at 2100 for the standard scenarios.

The experiment was calibrated for negative emissions by adapting the supplied pymagicc code to utilize the CMIP6 abrupt-0p5xCO2 and 1pctCO2-cdr test and generate Estimated Climate Sensitivity (a doubling or halving of CO2 concentration over the entire timeframe), Transient Climate Response (TCR), and Transient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions (TCRE).

Because TCR and TCRE are equal, and ECS is nearly equal the tuned modeling software passes the calibration.

Calculating ECS from abrupt-2xCO2.
Calculating TCR & TCRE from 1pctCO2.
TCR is 2.0314, ECS is 3.1035 kelvin and TCRE is 2.354257 kelvin / 1000 GtC
Calculating ECS from abrupt-0p5xCO2.
Calculating TCR & TCRE from 1pctCO2-cdr.
TCR is 2.0314, ECS is 3.1187 kelvin and TCRE is 2.354257 kelvin / 1000 GtC

Settings

Climate Sensitivity was set to (ECS):  3.12ºC.

Ratio Land Ocean: 'core_rlo' : 1.92
Heat exchange: 'core_heatxchange_landocean' : 1.63,

Heat exchange amplification: 'core_amplify_ocn2land_heatxchng' : 1,

North to South Heat Exchange: 'core_heatxchange_northsouth' : 0.3115475,

Start of preindustrial concentration (1750): 'co2_preindco2conc' : 276.744,

Gross Primary Product (p: 'co2_feedbackfactor_gpp' : .04, # 0.015

Discussion

2021 Code Repository

CDR Modeling Experiment Github repository: https://github.com/hsbay/cdrmex

Dependencies

• wine - Wine Is Not an Emulator, emulation software for running Windows programs on Linux and Unixes including MacOS

• pymagicc

Pymagicc will install the following:

MAGICC 6.801

jupyter

SSP Database, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb, About page

Bugs/Issues

2018 Results

The experiments removed all anthropogenic carbon dioxide and forced all other GHGs to zero, excluding ammonia, which resulted in under .1ºC of warming.

2018 Data

CSV of control files (Also see the SCENemax, SCENlmax, etc. tabs in Total Emitted Carbon Graphs and Comparisons gsheets)

tabs in Total Emitted Carbon Graphs and Comparisons gsheets)

• EMAX - https://drive.google.com/open?id=

  1ldRhdefresrCUeedRyO5QqUcB4U1LASA
• LMIN -  https://drive.google.com/open?id=1CUn6_xZeT7z9FcQP9NIH9mhdUsvQFemJ

SCEN Control files

• ONCemax.SCEN
• ONClmax.SCEN
• ONCemin.SCEN
• ONClmin.SCEN

2021 Code Repository

• 1ixSjWiY4vZ5wGMTBdQZvSfpA9Xa-wkZi

• LMAX https://

• drive.google.com/

Dependencies

• wine - Wine Is Not an Emulator, emulation software for running Windows programs on Linux and Unixes including MacOS
• pymagicc

Pymagicc will install the following:

MAGICC 6.801

jupyter

Code to translate CSVs and display scenarios are forthcoming.

SSP Database, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb, About page

Bugs

• open?id=165v1m4NYZ9H2krOxFIJiAgsMCwbxSb_F

• EMIN - https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ldRhdefresrCUeedRyO5QqUcB4U1LASA

• LMIN -  https://drive.google.com/open?id=1CUn6_xZeT7z9FcQP9NIH9mhdUsvQFemJ

SCEN Control files

• ONCemax.SCEN

• ONClmax.SCEN

• ONCemin.SCEN

• ONClmin.SCEN

Reference Papers

Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration, Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., and Wigley, T. M. L., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417-1456, DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011, 2011

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications, Meinshausen, M., Wigley, T. M. L., and Raper, S. C. B., Atmos. Chem. Phys.,11, 1457–1471, DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-1457-2011, 2011

Global Carbon Budget 2017, Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Manning, A. C., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Boden, T. A., Tans, P. P., Andrews, O. D., Arora, V. K., Bakker, D. C. E., Barbero, L., Becker, M., Betts, R. A., Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Cosca, C. E., Cross, J., Currie, K., Gasser, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Haverd, V., Houghton, R. A., Hunt, C. W., Hurtt, G., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kautz, M., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Körtzinger, A., Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lienert, S., Lima, I., Lombardozzi, D., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Monteiro, P. M. S., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S.-I., Nojiri, Y., Padin, X. A., Peregon, A., Pfeil, B., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Reimer, J., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Skjelvan, I., Stocker, B. D., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Tubiello, F. N., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., van Heuven, S., Viovy, N., Vuichard, N., Walker, A. P., Watson, A. J., Wiltshire, A. J., Zaehle, S., and Zhu, D., Earth System Science Data, 10, pp. 405-448, DOI: 10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds, Brian C. O’Neill, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Rob Dellink, Oliver Fricko, Wolfgang Lutz, Alexander Popp, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Samir KC, Marian Leimbach, Leiwen Jiang, Tom Kram, Shilpa Rao, Johannes Emmerling, Kristie Ebi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlík, Florian Humpenöder, Lara Aleluia Da Silva, Steve Smith, Elke Stehfest, Valentina Bosetti, Jiyong Eom, David Gernaat, Toshihiko Masui, Joeri Rogelj, Jessica Strefler, Laurent Drouet, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Mathijs Harmsen, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Lavinia Baumstark, Jonathan C. Doelman, Mikiko Kainuma, Zbigniew Klimont, Giacomo Marangoni, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Michael Obersteiner, Andrzej Tabeau, Massimo Tavoni, Global Environmental Change, Volume 42, Pages 153-168, ISSN 0959-3780, DOI: 110.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017

Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm, SSP1: Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest, David E.H.J. Gernaat, Jonathan C. Doelman, Maarten van den Berg, Mathijs Harmsen, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Lex F. Bouwman, Vassilis Daioglou, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Bastien Girod, Tom Kram, Luis Lassaletta, Paul L. Lucas, Hans van Meijl, Christoph Müller, Bas J. van Ruijven, Sietske van der Sluis, Andrzej Tabeau, Global Environmental Change, Volume 42, Pages 237-250, ISSN 0959-3780, DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008, 2017

Target atmospheric CO₂CO2: Where should humanity aim?, Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos, Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, DOI: 10.2174/1874282300802010217, 2008

Related Papers

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP): Rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6, Keller, D. P., Lenton, A., Scott, V., Vaughan, N. E., Bauer, N., Ji, D., Jones, C. D., Kravitz, B., Muri, H., and Zickfeld, K., Geosci. Model Dev., DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2017-168, 2018.

The SSP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., VogelVogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J.P., Daniel, J.S., John, A., Krummel, P., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S., Rayner, P., Reimann, S., Smith, S.J.,  van den Berg, M., Velders, G.J.M., Vollmer, M., Wang, H.J.R., DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2019-222, 2019 (preprint)

Projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice-shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2), Levermann,A., Winkelmann, R.,Albrecht, T., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N.R., Greve, R., Huybrechts, P., Jordan, J., Leguy, G., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pollard, D.,

Quiquet, A., Rodehacke, C.,

 Seroussi, H., Sutter, J., Zhang, T., Van Breedam, J., DeConto, R., Dumas, C., Garbe, J., Gudmundsson, G.H., Hoffman, M.J., Humbert, A., Kleiner, T., Lipscomb, W., Meinshausen, M., Ng, E., Perego, M., Price, S.F., Saito, F., Schlegel, N., Sun, S., van de Wal, R.S.W., DOI: 10.5194/esd-2019-23, 2020

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC

sealevel model, Alexander Nauels, Malte Meinshausen, Matthias Mengel, Katja Lorbacher, and Tom M.L. Wigley, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2016-233

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1:introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020

Zebedee R. J. Nicholls1Nicholls1,2, Malte Meinshausen1Meinshausen1,2,3, Jared Lewis1Lewis1, Robert Gieseke4Gieseke4, Dietmar Dommenget5Dommenget5,Kalyn Dorheim6Dorheim6, Chen-Shuo Fan5Fan5, Jan S. Fuglestvedt7Fuglestvedt7, Thomas Gasser8Gasser8, Ulrich Golüke9Golüke9, Philip Goodwin10Goodwin10,Corinne Hartin6Hartin6, Austin P. Hope11Hope11, Elmar Kriegler3Kriegler3, Nicholas J. Leach12Leach12, Davide Marchegiani5Marchegiani5, Laura A. McBride13McBride13,Yann Quilcaille8Quilcaille8, Joeri Rogelj8Rogelj8,14, Ross J. Salawitch11Salawitch11,13,15, Bjørn H. Samset7Samset7, Marit Sandstad7Sandstad7,Alexey N. Shiklomanov6Shiklomanov6, Ragnhild B. Skeie7Skeie7, Christopher J. Smith8Smith8,16, Steve Smith6Smith6, Katsumasa Tanaka17Tanaka17,18,Junichi Tsutsui19Tsutsui19, and Zhiang Xie

Is Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO₂CO₂, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020

Andrew H. MacDougall1MacDougall1, Thomas L. Frölicher2Frölicher2,3, Chris D. Jones4Jones4, Joeri Rogelj5Rogelj5,6, H. Damon Matthews7Matthews7,Kirsten Zickfeld8Zickfeld8, Vivek K. Arora9Arora9, Noah J. Barrett1Barrett1, Victor Brovkin10Brovkin10,11, Friedrich A. Burger2Burger2,3, Micheal Eby12Eby12,Alexey V. Eliseev13Eliseev13,14, Tomohiro Hajima15Hajima15, Philip B. Holden16Holden16, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes2Thömmes2,3, Charles Koven17Koven17,Nadine Mengis18Mengis18, Laurie Menviel19Menviel19, Martine Michou20Michou20, Igor I. Mokhov13Mokhov13,14, Akira Oka21Oka21, Jörg Schwinger22Schwinger22,Roland Séférian20Séférian20, Gary Shaffer23Shaffer23,24, Andrei Sokolov25Sokolov25, Kaoru Tachiiri15Tachiiri15, Jerry Tjiputra22Tjiputra22, Andrew Wiltshire4Wiltshire4, and Tilo Ziehn2Ziehn2, A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation, Myles R. Allen, Keith P. Shine, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Richard J. Millar, Michelle Cain, David J. Frame & Adrian H. Macey, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 1, Article number: 16, DOI: 10.1038/s41612-018-0026-8, 2018

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, PNAS, vol. 115 no. 33 8252-8259, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115, 2018

Estimating Changes in Global Temperature since the Preindustrial Period, Ed Hawkins, Pablo Ortega, Emma Suckling, Andrew Schurer, Gabi Hegerl, Phil Jones, Manoj Joshi, Timothy J. Osborn, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Juliette Mignot, Peter Thorne, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1, 2017